10 Most Vulnerable Federal Contracts Expiring in 2027

Every contract in our dataset gets a 0-100 vulnerability score based on 8 factors: bridge contract status, offer count on the original award, incumbent concentration, set-aside changes, days until end, and obligation trends. Score 35+ indicates a vulnerable incumbent. Score 50+ is a high-probability displacement target.

HHS nanotechnology R&D is dominated by one vendor. Leidos Biomedical Research holds 4 of the 10 vulnerable contracts. When a single incumbent concentrates that heavily in one NAICS, vulnerability scores rise — agencies face pressure to diversify.

IT Concepts has the longest runway. At 712 days, their SSA computer systems contract ends in early 2028. That is a 24-month capture window — enough time to build relationships, submit capability statements, and shape requirements.

Architectural and engineering services are crowded at the top. HDR Engineering and Flad Affiliated Design both appear. These are competitive NAICS codes where past performance in similar agencies matters more than price.

If any of these contracts are in your NAICS codes, start capture planning now. 12-18 months out is the ideal window — past that, the RFP has likely already been scoped by competitors. Before that, you do not have enough signal to invest.

Research the incumbent's full award history. Track their recent losses. Monitor the program office for industry days and RFIs. And start positioning your differentiator now — not when the solicitation drops.