20 Most Vulnerable Federal Contracts Expiring in the Next 12 Months

Looking across the 20 contracts, a few patterns emerge:

• DoD dominates (11 of 20). Construction, engineering, logistics, and architectural services are the recurring themes. Army Corps of Engineers (W912 PIIDs), NAVFAC (N44/N66), and Air Force (SPE) are the most represented contracting commands.
• USAID (4 of 20) is unusually heavy for a small agency. USAID re-competes are often vulnerable because their programs shift with foreign policy priorities, funding cycles, and country office reorganization. If your firm has USAID past performance, this is a concentrated opportunity.
• Engineering and construction lead the industry mix. Engineering Services (541330), Building Construction (236220), and Architectural Services (541310) all appear multiple times. These are re-compete markets where agencies routinely churn incumbents based on technical and pricing differentiation.
• Foreign primes appear surprisingly often.Dongkuk Structures (South Korea) and Tsontos (Greece) hold DoD construction contracts overseas — those are OCONUS work ending soon, where incumbent displacement can come from either a US prime or another local firm. If you're a US prime with OCONUS capability, these are worth watching.
• Values skew small-to-mid ($2.4M to $36M). The very large contracts (>$100M) tend to have stronger incumbent protection baked in and don't show up at the top of vulnerability rankings. The real displacement opportunities are in the $2M-$50M mid-market where agencies have more flexibility.

If any of these contracts are in your NAICS or agency, the fact that they're ending in weeks (not quarters) means the agency is likely already writing the follow-on solicitation. A few concrete actions:

1. Look up the contract on USAspending.gov using the PIID (shown in our product if you sign up). Read the current scope, period of performance, and key personnel requirements.
2. Check if the incumbent has shown weakness.Bridge extensions, frequent modifications, negative CPARS chatter in industry sources — these compound the structural vulnerability signals already in the score.
3. Decide bid / no-bid fast.At 30-90 days to end, you're already behind schedule for a traditional capture plan. Either the incumbent is known-vulnerable and your past performance fits (bid) or you're late to the party (no-bid, but track for next cycle).
4. Request the draft RFP or sources-sought response. If an RFP has dropped, get it immediately. If a sources-sought came out recently, your response needs to signal strong capability to the contracting officer.

This list regenerates nightly as contracts move in and out of the 12-month window. Bookmark this page and check weekly — or get the filtered version for your specific NAICS and agency inside Pursight.

Data source: USAspending.gov contract awards, updated nightly. Vulnerability score is computed from 6 factors: bridge contract status, competition history (original offer count), time since last action, time until expiration, contract value, and competition type. Thresholds and weights documented at /methodology. This list filters for endDate in the next 365 days, obligatedAmount above $1M, isRecompeteCandidate = true, vulnerability score ≥ 30, and enriched vendor/NAICS data.

Note: inclusion here is not a prediction that the incumbent will lose. Most incumbents retain even on high-vulnerability contracts. These are simply the contracts that most strongly exhibit structural patterns associated with incumbent turnover in our dataset. Use as a prioritization signal, not a crystal ball.